Households in the United States expect inflation to remain steady over the next several years, according to the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data. The survey, conducted from November 1 through November 30, found that while inflation expectations held firm at one-year (3.2%), three-year, and five-year (3.0%) horizons, consumers anticipate higher costs in key areas such as medical care.
Expectations for medical care cost growth rose to 10.1%, reaching their highest level since January 2014. Other year-ahead commodity price expectations also increased: food by 0.2 percentage point to 5.9%, gas by 0.6 percentage point to 4.1%, college education by 0.2 percentage point to 8.4%, and rent by 1.1 percentage points to 8.3%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3% for the sixth month in a row.
Labor market indicators showed some improvement, with median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations holding at 2.6%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year dropped slightly to its lowest reading since December 2024 at 13.8%. The expected quit rate also fell to its lowest level since February this year at 17.7%. Respondents were somewhat more optimistic about finding new employment if needed, though that probability remained below its recent average.
Despite stable inflation and labor outlooks, respondents’ perceptions of their current and future financial situations worsened compared to previous months. More households reported being worse off financially than a year ago, and fewer expected improvement in the coming year.
Median expected household income growth ticked up slightly to match its trailing annual average at 2.9%. However, anticipated spending grew faster—median nominal household spending expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to reach an annualized rate of 5%.
Credit access perceptions declined; fewer respondents believed it would be easier to obtain credit in a year’s time compared with last year, while overall expectations for future credit availability did not change much.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose modestly above its recent average, now standing at 13.7%. Expected tax increases also climbed across all age groups and demographics; median expectation for a year-ahead tax increase reached its highest level since June last year at 4.1%.
Expected government debt growth jumped by two points to reach its highest mark since July last year at an anticipated increase of 9.2% over the next twelve months.
Respondents were less confident about interest rates on savings accounts rising within a year; that probability decreased by nearly one point to just over a quarter (24%). Meanwhile, confidence in higher U.S stock prices twelve months from now fell slightly as well.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations is conducted online among approximately twelve hundred heads of households who participate for up to twelve months each, allowing researchers unique insight into changes in individual consumer attitudes over time.
“The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave,” according to materials provided with the release. “It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit.”
For further details on methodology or survey results see resources available through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s website.
