New York City’s new development market is heading into 2026 with a shrinking supply of available units, raising concerns among analysts and industry professionals. Despite steady demand and strong sales in some recent projects, the number of new buildings opening for buyers has dropped significantly due to high financing costs and limited opportunities for assembling development sites.
Data from Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group shows that Manhattan had 3,600 unsold units in the second quarter of this year, marking a decade low. That figure is expected to decline further next year. Only five more buildings are projected to deliver 245 units in Manhattan by the end of this year, according to Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing.
“It’s surprising to me that it’s taken so long for so many people to actually catch on, because this has been in the making for quite some time,” said Kelly Mack, president of Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group.
Daniel Pupke of Reuveni Development Marketing described the current situation as “a lull” between two cycles: a post-pandemic boom followed by today’s slowdown caused by higher interest rates and restricted access to financing. “People bought and mobilized very quickly,” Pupke said about the earlier period when developers moved fast on acquisitions with cheaper loans.
Pupke noted that when interest rates rose going into 2023, new project starts slowed unless developers already had contracts and financing secured. Robin Schneiderman, managing director at BHSDM, identified available equity as the main factor limiting new projects: “That, to me, is what sort of drives the market overall.”
The combination of less available equity and rising land prices has made ground-up developments harder to justify financially. The 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act also contributed by making rental-to-condo conversions more difficult.
From mid-2025 through year-end, annual unit deliveries are projected at just 1,450—a 29 percent drop from historic averages—with sales outpacing launches by 60 percent this year according to Mack.
Some neighborhoods stand out amid these trends. The Upper East Side is expected to bring more units than usual through late 2026. A major project there is Related Companies’ conversion at The Strathmore (400 East 84th Street), offering some condos below $1,800 per square foot—what Mack called an increasingly rare price point as construction costs rise. She added that average annual deliveries in that price range will fall by over 60 percent through late 2026 based on Corcoran Sunshine data.
On the Upper West Side, development opportunities are scarce; only about 30 new units are expected through late 2026 before inventory could run out entirely as soon as 2027.
Other notable projects include Rotem Rosen’s Malabar Residences at Billionaire’s Row (126 East 57th Street), which recently lost its sales director Noble Black; Brodsky Organization and Sorgente Group’s Flatiron Building condo conversion where prices may reach $6,000 per square foot; Grid Group’s boutique Chelsea project with parking amenities; Elad Group’s planned conversion at 419 Park Avenue South; and Continuum Company’s development at 26 East 35th Street.
In Brooklyn, next year will see nearly double its historical average pipeline with almost 1,000 units coming online—though most projects remain small-scale brownstone conversions or modest ground-up builds averaging just seventeen units each. Larger developments like Charney Companies’ project at Fort Greene (95 Rockwell Place) and Urban Development Partners’ Downtown Brooklyn site (285 Schermerhorn Street) are also set for sales launches soon.
Developers launching projects over the next several years may benefit from reduced competition. “I think that if you today presented a B+ or better site with views, you could be extremely successful if you deliver in three to five years,” Pupke said. He noted renewed activity among developers who have resumed buying after years of caution.
Existing buildings with unsold inventory—such as One Wall Street or The Greenwich in the Financial District—may also benefit from fewer competing launches. According to Marketproof data cited in the article, The Greenwich was among New York City’s fastest-selling buildings over the past twelve months.
Looking ahead however, Kelly Mack cautioned against expecting a quick turnaround: “It’s going to take at least five years to turn that picture around,” she said.
