A new study led by faculty at Stony Brook University and published in Nature projects that smoke exposure from wildfires could lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths in the United States by 2050. The research, headed by Minghao Qiu of Stony Brook’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS), analyzes wildfire activity under increasingly dry and warm climate conditions.
The study notes a significant rise in wildfires across the country, particularly in the western regions but also affecting other areas. Researchers used historical wildfire data, records of smoke pollution, statistical models, and machine learning tools to estimate future deaths caused by inhaling particulate matter from wildfire smoke under various climate change scenarios.
Wildfire smoke contains a mix of chemicals that can harm health. According to the study, exposure can affect large populations for extended periods and may contribute to deaths up to three years after initial contact. The research focuses on fine particulate matter known as PM2.5, which can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream. While PM2.5 from sources like vehicles is well studied, less is known about its effects when originating from wildfires. Recent studies indicate that wildfire smoke includes a variety of toxic chemicals harmful to humans.
The team linked U.S. death records with estimates of population exposure to smoke pollution to assess these risks.
“The link between wildfire exposure and mortality burden can be very high, and what we are seeing is a clear increase in wildfire smoke nationwide, including long-range transport of smoke and dangerous particulates across the nation,” said Qiu, who is also a core faculty member in Stony Brook Medicine’s Program in Public Health.
Marshall Burke, senior author and professor at Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, commented: “There’s a broad understanding that wildfire activity and wildfire smoke exposure are changing quickly. This is a lived experience, unfortunately, for folks on the West Coast over the last decade and folks on the East Coast in the last few years. Our paper puts some numbers on what that change in exposure means for health outcomes, both now and in the future as the climate warms. And our understanding of who is vulnerable to this exposure is much broader than we thought.”
The authors noted their estimates only account for mortality impacts: “By focusing on mortality alone, our estimated health damages exclude short- and long-term non-fatal health impacts from smoke PM2.5, including morbidity, worsened mental health, and potential long-run cancer risks associated with the carcinogenic constituents of wildfire smoke.”
They conclude there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies to reduce mortality due to wildfire smoke exposure. Suggested measures include improved land management practices such as prescribed burns to manage fire risk and efforts to protect vulnerable groups during periods of heavy smoke.
Funding for this research came from several organizations including the Keck Foundation; Stanford’s Center for Innovation in Global Health; Stony Brook University’s SoMAS and Program in Public Health; Harvard University Center for the Environment; and Stanford Research Computing Center.
